by Christophe.Bernhart » 28 Dec 2009, 04:49
I waited awhile to answer this one because I was hoping someone else would chime in and offer some advice (as it seems we have so many supposed experts on here who simply try to advertise their own sites).
Card counting is really hard to do. It takes a great memory and a lot of practice. It's something I wouldn't recommend doing without really learning about it, because mistakes will cost you more than playing with basic strategy. With that said I'll try to give you the general idea behind it with the game Blackjack.
When you're playing Blackjack a player wants a deck that is full of 10's and Aces and low in low number cards. Thus keeping track of what comes out of the deck is to the favor of the player.
You know what? I wrote an article on this awhile back. Here it is:
On the other hand, card counting is a way to have the edge working in the players favor. Card counting is the assumption that the dealer will bust more often when there are a lot of 10's in the deck and that he will complete more hands when there are a lot of smaller cards in the deck. Card counters have an advantage by keeping a running total of the cards that have been played to giving an idea of what kind of cards remain in the deck. A lot of 10 cards remaining in the deck will make the card counter bet more money because the odds are slightly more in their favor. On the other hand, a lot of small cards remaining would make the card counter bet small amounts because the odds would be slightly in favor of the dealer.
High-low count is the most popular method of card counting. With this method the player assigns a value of +1 to all 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's and 6's, while all 10's, Jacks, Queen, Kings and Aces are assigned a value of -1. The remaining cards: 7, 8 and 9 have no value and are not counted.
+1 = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
-1 = 10, J, Q, K, A
Notice that each group has an equal number of cards: five cards valued at +1 and five cards valued at -1. The cards balance each other out and if added together the end result will always be zero.
A card counter keeps a running total of all the cards played out. A plus value total means that a lot of small cards have appeared and the remaining deck is rich in ten's which is good for the player. However, a minus value means a lot of 10-value cards have appeared and the remaining deck must be rich in low cards which is bad for the player. As an example, let's say the following cards have been dealt on the first hand from a single deck:
2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, = +8
J, K, Q, 10, A = -5
Total = +3
Eight plus-value cards and five minus-value cards resulted in a total count of +3. There are now three more 10-value cards than low cards remaining in the deck which is better for the player. The higher the plus count, the better it is for the player. In this situation card counters increase their bets proportionally as the count got higher using the same basic strategy mentioned previously (except for certain instances where a slight change may be called for).
Conversely, a negative count will cause a card counter to bet the minimum amount. Preferably the card counter would not bet at all, however the casinos don't allow people to sit at their tables and not bet so the counter has to bet something and the minimum is it.
True count measures the count per deck instead of a running count of all the cards that have been played. To get the true count you divide the running count by the number of decks remaining to be played. For example, a 6-deck game where the count is +9, 3 decks remain to be played. Divide the count of +9 by 3 gets +3 which is the true count. Another example, an 8-deck game with a count of +12 and 6 decks left to be played. Divide +12 by 6 gets +2 which is the true count. In other words, a +2 count in a double-deck game with 1 deck left to be played is the same as a +4 count in a 4-deck game with 2 decks left to be played, which is the same as a +6 count is a 6-deck game with 3 decks left to be played, which is the same as a +12 count in an 8-deck game with 6 decks left to be played.
The card counter always takes the running count and divides it by the number of decks remaining in order to get the true count as all betting and playing decisions are based on the true count rather than the running count.
The running count and the true count are initially the same in single-deck games. The further into the deck, however, the more power is given to the running count as there is less than one deck remaining. As such, a running count of +3 and 1/2-deck remaining the true count is found by dividing +3 by 1/2 (which is the same as multiplying by 2/1, or 2) to get a true count of +6.
The count becomes much more significant closer to the last cards in the deck which is why casinos never deal down to the end. Instead, dealers insert a plastic card about 2/3 or 3/4 of the way in the deck (called the penetration point) and when that card is reached the dealer will finish that particular round and then shuffle the cards. Card counters search for dealers that offer good penetration points. The further into the deck(s) the penetration point the more meaningful the true count is and hence the more advantageous for the card counter.
With all of that work the card counter could have as much as 2% maximum edge above the casino, depending on the number of decks used, the rules in force, and the skill of the counter. Realistically the card counter has an edge closer to 1%. In other words, for every $100 in bets the card counter will win $1. Somehow this edge is enough for some people to make a living playing the game.
